Now that the Chalk dust has settled on Wimbledon 2019, I’ve started eating again. Washing, too. Today, I finally put out the rubbish.
Nearly a fortnight has passed since the 2019 Men’s Wimbledon final which saw Novak Djokovic defeat Roger Federer in five sets, the final one the first match in the men’s competition to go all the way to the recently implemented 12-12 tiebreaker.
When Federer served for the match at 8-7 and had 40-30, I started recording it on my phone for a friend in the US who could not see the match. When Djokovic’s passing shot on match point 2 got the game back to deuce, I stopped recording. The moment had passed and it did not look like it would come back, either. I have witnessed Federer lose from match points up before, and to Djokovic, too, and that impending doomish inevitability made itself know to me once more. Losing from championship point in a slam final, though, that was another story.
On the first match point, at 40-15, before picking up my phone, I was standing up, ready to jump and enjoy the Federer win I had predicted. It was a biased prediction, admittedly. After all, I am a tennis blogger and a little bit of bias is part of our make-up.
But there and then, with Federer holding championship point, my faith in him, built not just on his being Federer but on his improvement since that Australian Open loss to Tsitsipas, winning in Miami, his credible Clay court run and his Halle win, seemed grounded in actual fact.
I still could not really believe it was happening, that Federer, at this stage of his career and with all his history at Wimbledon, was about to win title No.9, and defeat Novak Djokovic, world No.1, and who had beaten him in the ’14 and ’15 finals.
That Federer did not close out the match was a huge blow to me and I lay back on the couch. I watched the rest of the match as neutral as I could be, like the impartial tennis journalist I aspire to be.
Djokovic and his ability to stay in the match and give himself a chance at title No.5 playing one of the greatest grass courts of all time, whatever the speed of the court, grabbed me now. Whatever you may feel about the world No,1, his game is about as good as a tennis game has ever been, and when you let it reel you in, its own fine qualities start to charm.
As the games in the fifth set progressed to the inevitable tiebreak, the third decider of the match, Djokovic winning the other two like a man who had really been in charge all along in a match he had spent four fifths looking second best, the world No.1’s simmering determination and line perfect answer to Federer’s excellent questions was nothing less than impressive as he won the match 7-6, 1-6, 7-6, 4-6, 13-12.
Djokovic may not be tennis’s darling and his game is not the elegant yet crushing brilliance of Federer’s, but he’s a champion and his tennis wins Majors. If Federer was going to lose, if he was going to let two championships points slip away from his 37 year old service arm, it was going to be against Djokovic, no one else. Watching your favorites finish second best is painful when you know what it is like to see them be number one and the champion, but the sting of it is taken out when they finish second to the likes of Djokovic.
The house is tidy now and I’m functioning. Tennis, like Djokovic does his opponents, can really crush you. The sport can really raise the spirits, too, and with the US Open in full view, starting in a month’s time, there’s no time for moping. Time to get the biases buzzing again; slam No. 21 really could be round the corner, and if it is not, watching Federer still contesting for it to the bittersweet end against the sport’s very best is still better than not watching him being a contender at all.
Men’s tennis’ search for the stars to replace the current Polaris’ of the game saw pundits and fans gaze and speculate at many familiar names on the Wimbledon 2019 draw sheet– Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, Denis Shapovolov, Taylor Fritz, Miomir Kecmanovic, Frances Tiafoe and Felix-Auger Aliassime, to name the most high profile.
By the end of week 1, all were gone, as were Christian Garin, Andrey Rublev, Reilly Opelka, Casper Ruud, Alex di Minaur, Corentin Moutet, and Hubert Hurcakz.
Humbert has succeeded where his fellow ‘Next Gen’ failed for a number of reasons- draws, luck, fitness, form, pressure and style.
Primarily his success is because he has the attacking game, touch and net skills to succeed on the low bouncing grass courts.
Perhaps, also, because he has not been studied under quite the same strength lens of a tennis world craving a meteor from the sky, every move and twinkle noted and analysed, as some of his peers have.
The man Humbert beat in the third round, Felix AA, so well known aged 18 he has his own moniker, admitted the pressure got to him after his 4-6, 5-7, 3-6 loss to Humbert on court 1.
No wonder- Felix’s name came up in matches he was not even playing and his interviews played between them. He was the third match on court 1 in the round of 32 playing in only his second slam and having never won a slam match before this Wimbledon.
The hype, while Felix AA’s earned it, the Canadian is the youngest player in the top 100, has made 3 finals and the Miami semis this season and was the tournament’s 19th seed, might end up being something he’d rather return.
Something FAA would also like to have well returned was Humbert’s serve. The Frenchman had a first serve percentage of 79 and a second delivery of 61 and faced just four break points the entire match with FAA breaking once. Humbert, meanwhile, broke FAA five times and held ten break points.
If FAA had been feeling pressure before the match, Humbert capitalized on it, applying plenty of his own.
That highly anticipated even taken for granted Felix AA fourth rounder versus Novak Djokovic is not happening now, the media denied its potential changing of the guard or young gun schooled by legend headlines.
Instead the focus will be on Humbert reaching his first Grand slam fourth rounder.
On his way there, he had to come from two sets to love down to beat Gael Monfils, one of his country’s most famous and loved players, who retired 0-3 down in the fifth with an ankle injury.
In the second round, Humbert beat experienced Marcel Granollers, playing his 12th Wimbledon. Granollers has never been past the second round at Wimbledon; Humbert is into the fourth round and on his SW19 debut and in his only his fourth main draw of a Major.
Not just any Major of course. But Wimbledon, with its practically extinct yet 21st century grass courts on which the ball bounces lowly rather slowly, though with the same old odd, unpredictable and frustrating angles.
That Zverev and Co did not not make it into the round of sixteen is not as surprising as the ball sometimes bounces in SW19.
The tennis played there is quite different to the one they often excel at the rest of the year- generally medium slow high bouncing Hard and Clay, surfaces on which the ball grips on the court and then rises right up into the optimum top spin crunching zone.
Humbert, likes to hit flat and go for his shots, a recipe which has been known to work well on Grass, and which has helped him become the youngest man in the fourth round.
At 21, the French man is nearly 9 years younger than the average age of this year’s men’s single last sixteeners at Wimbledon.
He’s not the only player in his early twenties, though, joined as he is by 23 year old Matteo Berrettini who defeated Diego Schwartzman in five gripping sets. But, there’s no one else under 26, and the third youngest player left in the draw is 27 year old Tennys Sandgren.
Humbert won’t be out of the spotlight for much longer though with a match against the world No.1 and defending champion Novak Djokovic on Court 1 on Wimbledon’s manic Monday.
While he won’t have experienced quite the attention he’ll get facing title favorite Djokovic on Monday, Humbert is no stranger to buzz after his deep run at the ATP 250 Marseille tournament, in which he beat Borna Coric on his way to the semis. There was also his run to the US Open second round last year, not deep main draw wise, but he came out of qualifying to reach the second round, a four match streak, before losing to Stan Wawrinka in four sets. Enough to get you talked about by fans and featured in the tennis press, but not quite enough to get you talked up as the next big thing with the likes of Zverev, Tsitispas and FAA around.
For now, the 21 one year old can enjoy being the youngest player in the Wimbledon fourth round, the sole representative of his peers, in a sport which has no active slam champ under 30 and at a tournament of which the surface is only played on for six weeks of a 46 week season.
Humbert’s arrival in the second week of Wimbledon may not herald him as the next big thing with the upcoming US hard court swing a more welcoming stomping ground for his fellow ATP Next Genners and recent grads and one in which they will once again hit the headlines and for the right reasons.
Not anointing Humbert is OK, though. More than OK in fact. Heralding the other youngsters is not doing them much good that often- only Tsitsipas has reached a slam semi-final- and it probably won’t do great things for Humbert, either. Hype makes money, not players.
The search for the next young star will still go on, and it’s one we should probably call off. Like Humbert did at Wimbledon, the next youngsters ready to contend for slams will make themselves known to us no matter how much we focus our lens and how much time we spend predicting their paths.
The stars will shoot nonetheless, so let’s just pull up a seat, put up our feet and enjoy a good gape as their games shoot off before us, whoever they are.
Starting this coming Monday, the immaculately manicured grass courts at the All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club host the oldest tennis major for the 133rd time.
The curiously scheduled tennis tour jumps from Melbourne to Roland Garros, a gap of four and a half months for players to make the journey from hard to the red dirt’s ultimate stop the first Sunday of June, and then leaps to SW19, with just five weeks for players to readjust from the higher bouncing Clay to the lower bouncing Grass in time to lift the trophy mid July.
Although the transition to the slower Wimbledon Grass we see the pros ply their trade on in the 21st Century does not pose quite the same challenges conditions wise as it once did, the historic lawns still require a different skill-set, footwork and shot preparation wise, while those more aggressive minded players with bigger and smarter serves who are not afraid to slice are still more favored to prevail than those who like to help make that baseline nice and muddy for week 2.
The one time Summer Garden party is still, despite the competition the other Majors pose as they grow in size and stature, not just tennis’ most renowned event, but one of sport’s, and, in a crowded Summer sporting field featuring women’s football and the Cricket world cup also taking center stage, it will need to produce the same drama it did last year- those semis are still talked about nearly a year on– to grab the headlines.
History will also vie with committee decisions for tennis column inches with this year’s tournament marking the tenth anniversary of Federer breaking Pete Sampras’ Major haul record and also potentially serving up yet another note-worthy chapter in the sport’s ever expanding record books with the following narratives all possible upcoming entries:
Can Wimbledon’s most decorated gentlemen’s singles champion extend his record to #RF21?
Will his bête-noire, Nadal, who, were it not for a couple of points and playing condition decisions here and there in ’18, could have been this year’s defending champ, narrow the gap to one?
Will the man, Novak Djokovic, who has winning records against them both have the last laugh, as he has had in three of the last four slams?
Practically less likely, yet theoretically still possible, will a new face finally break the Big Four dominance at SW19, which now (ridiculously) dates back to 2003…
The Tennis Review editor Christian Deverille and tennis analyst Karthik Swaminathan break down the ATP draw.
First quarter:
Top seed and World No. 1 Djokovic headlines this section and commences his title defence against Germany’s Philipp Kohlschreiber. The Serb leads their head-to-head 10–2. Kohlschreiber did inflict a shock defeat on Djokovic in Indian Wells back in March, his first win over the world No.1 in over a decade, which makes this first rounder even more one to watch.
In the second round, Djokovic could face Malek Jaziri of Tunisia (Djokovic leads 1–0) or America’s Denis Kudla (yet to meet).
In the third round, the defending champ could come up against compatriot and 32nd seed Dusan Lajovic (Djokovic leads 2–0).
Lajovic, though, has a tricky opener himself against the talented 22-year-old Hubert Hurkacz of Poland (Djokovic leads 1–0).
If not his compatriot, Djokovic could also face the mercurial Ernests Gulbis (Djokovic leads 7–1); the Latvian reached the fourth round here last year and the third round the year before.
Possibly lying in wait in the fourth round, 16th seed Gael Monfils of France (Djokovic leads 15–0) or the fast-rising Félix Auger-Aliassime (yet to meet).
The 18-year-old Canadian has reached three finals this year, most recently at the Mercedes Cup in Stuttgart earlier this month (l. Matteo Berrettini).
7th seed Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece (head-to-head level 1–1) or 11th seed Daniil Medvedev of Russia (Djokovic leads 3–1), a much touted next-generation duo, are potential quarterfinal opponents.
Also lurking in this quarter are 30th seed Kyle Edmund, the home hope, and the unseeded pair of Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov and Croatian ace-machine Ivo Karlovic.
South Africa’s Kevin Anderson, last year’s runner-up (l. Djokovic), is seeded fourth thanks to Wimbledon’s formula despite missing action since Miami (l. Federer) due to injury and is the highest seed in this section.
The gentle giant opens against Pierre-Hugues Herbert of France (Anderson leads 1–0) before a second round against either Serbia’s Janko Tipsarevic (head-to-head level 1–1) or Japan’s Yoshihito Nishioka (Anderson leads 1–0).
26th seed Argentine Guido Pella (yet to meet) is a potential third round opponent while 15th seed Milos Raonic (head-to-head level 1–1) of Canada or 22nd seed Stanislas Wawrinka (Anderson trails 4–5) could pose a threat in the fourth.
6th seeded German Alexander Zverev (Anderson trails 0–5) or 10th seeded Russian Karen Khachanov (Anderson leads 1–0), another next-generation pair, could lie in wait in the quarterfinals.
Anderson’s form is suspect and Zverev, who has an interesting opener in Czech southpaw Jiri Vesely, is yet to make a grand slam semifinal means this section is waiting to throw a surprise. Can the ‘other Swiss’ or someone else make the most of this chance? Or will the defending runner-up find his gear again?
Two-time Wimbledon champion and World No. 2 Nadal was not impressed with being demoted to a number-three seeding. And while we know the Spaniard keeps expectations low ahead of matches, he could be excused for not liking how the draw turned out, at least on paper, as his potential path to a third title at SW19 seems laden with banana skins.
Up first for Rafa is someone he hasn’t faced before—Japan’s Yuichi Sugita—but his second-round adversary is someone he knows only too well, the highly volatile Nick Kyrgios (head-to-head level 3–3). The Aussie famously ended Nadal’s hopes on these very grounds back in 2014 and the two had a particularly fiery meeting in Acapulco earlier this season.
Kyrgios, however, could have his hands full against compatriot Jordan Thompson in his opening round.
It only gets warmer for Nadal as he could face either 29th seed Denis Shapovalov of Canada (head-to-head level 1–1) or the unseeded Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (Nadal leads 8–4) in the third round before a possible fourth round against 13th seed and 2017 runner-up Marin Cilic.
The Croat himself has France’s Adrian Mannarino to deal with first. The other end of this quarter is headlined by fifth seed Dominic Thiem of Austria who starts his campaign against big-serving American Sam Querrey.
There is no doubt that this section can tease and throw a lot of questions but as the saying goes, ‘Fortune favors the brave’ and whoever emerges from this section will need plenty of pluck.
Three-to-see first-round matches:
(5) Dominic Thiem v. Sam Querrey
Frances Tiafoe v. (12) Fabio Fognini
Bernard Tomic v. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Karthik’s semi-finalist pick: (3) Rafael Nadal
Christian’s semi-finalist pick: (13) Marin Cilic
Fourth quarter:
Federer returns to his most successful grand slam on the back of a tenth title in Halle (d. David Goffin).
In what will be a first-time meeting, the 20-time grand slam champion will face South African 22-year-old Lloyd Harris in the opening round before a second round against either 20-year old local Jay Clarke (yet to meet) or 23-year-old Noah Rubin (Federer leads 1–0).
27th seeded Frenchman Lucas Pouille is a likely third round opponent.
In the fourth round, the 14th seed Borna Coric’s late withdrawal with injury means Federer could end up meeting 17th seed Matteo Berrettini who is no fool on grass, winning the title in Stuttgart (d. Auger-Allisiame) and reaching the Halle semis (L to Goffin).
In the last eight, 8th seed Kei Nishikori of Japan (Federer leads 7–3) or 9th seed John Isner (Federer leads 7–2) are potential opponents.
Former Australian Open finalist Marcos Baghdatis, who is scheduled to play Jan-Lennard Struff in the first round, announced this year’s Championships would be his last event in professional-level competition. Expect that match on a show court and to be the match of the first round.
Three-to-see first-round matches:
Taylor Fritz v. Tomas Berdych
Jan-Lennard Struff v. Marcos Baghdatis
(27) Lucas Pouille v. Richard Gasquet
Karthik’s semi-finalist pick: (2) Roger Federer
Christian’s semi-finalist pick: (2) Roger Federer
Semi-final 1 predictions:
Karthik: (1) Novak Djokovic d. (10) Karen Khachanov
Christian: (1) Novak Djokovic d. (6) Sascha Zverev
Semi-final 2 predictions:
Karthik: (2) Roger Federer d. (3) Rafael Nadal
Christian: (2) Roger Federer d (13) Marin Cilic
Final predictions:
Karthik: (1) Novak Djokovic d. (2) Roger Federer for a 5th Wimbledon title and a 16th grand slam crown
Christian: (2) Roger Federer d. (1) Novak Djokovic. This is as good an opportunity the 37 year old all time Great is going to get to make #RF21 a trending hashtag and to reassert himself as the No.1 name mentioned in the never-ending G.O.A.T debate.
The defending champion and four time title holder (’11, ’14, ’15, ’18) had a tumultuous end to his Roland Garros ’18 and has not played an ATP Grass warm up tournament, but if he comes to Wimbledon focused and prepared, the trophy is likely his.
Djokovic sits on top of the rankings with 12,415 points, 4,470 points more than second ranked Rafa Nadal. That haul comes mostly courtesy of 3 slams, 3 ATP 1000 titles, an RG semi, and runner up finishes in Paris-Bercy, Rome and the WTF finals.
Over the last 12 months, Djokovic is the man to beat on the ATP tour, a status he re-earned for himself back at SW19 a year ago and which he is favorite to reaffirm the second Sunday of July.
On Grass, Djokovic is too consistent and smart on serve, too good on the return and from the baseline, and his point construction means he can move forward and make the most of the lower bounce. That all round consistency if he can bring it to the championships is what will separate him from the pack.
If he can’t bring it, then it will be game on, and things could get dirtier than a muddy baseline come the second week. But just as Djokovic plays slam level tennis better than anyone, he also wins uglier more unattractively than anyone, and that mix of beauty and the beastly has been the narrative of many a slam of late, and there’s little to suggest he won’t be retelling that story over the next two weeks in SW19.
Roger Federer
A 10th Halle title and all that match fitness that comes with his playing the tour all season are encouraging signs for Federer.
The 37 year old has a realistic chance of winning a ninth Wimbledon title, and the only player who can stop him seems to be Novak Djokovic.
With Federer seeded 2nd, the two will be at opposite ends of the draw so Federer should, at the very least, make the final. Last year’s self-confessed disaster versus Kevin Anderson will certainly keep him in check if he feels for even one second he’s starting to take his eye off the prize.
Once he’s a match away from it, and if Djokovic also makes it to the championship match, that match will be a tough one to call. The edge will go to the Serb, but the Swiss, the greatest active grass courter in the draw bar none, certainly won’t be written off should he get in sight of title No.9.
Marin Cilic
Cilic, hit with a knee injury last season, is not having a good 2019- he’s 10-9- and went out in the second round of Queens to Diego Schwartzman.
If Cilic is healthy, he could go on one of his runs. There are few players better at best of five or better on Grass.
Rafa Nadal
The Roland Garros champ and world No.2 won’t be seeded second due to Wimbledon’s seeding method and so he’ll have to potentially get through both Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer to win the title.
However, they will also have to get through him, and if you ask Djokovic, who won arguably 2018’s match of the year versus Nadal in last year’s semis, that is anything but a stroll on the grass.
Kevin Anderson
Last year’s finalist is on the road back from injury so it might be a lot to ask him to repeat last year’s run. Still, if he’s healthy, few will be more motivated to clinch their first slam than Anderson.
12 trophies at one major for one man. That is what Rafa Nadal achieved in winning Roland Garros yet again the first weekend of June 2019.
Aged 33, his reign in Paris goes all the way back to 2005 when he was a 19 year old playing his first Roland Garros. Just as he did back then, this time around, 14 years on, he beat the Swiss again at that stage before, as he did last year, defeating Dominic Thiem in the final.
For the first two sets, the first Rafa edging in a tighter contest than the 6-3 scoreline suggests, the second Thiem playing smart, conserving his energy, finding his best tennis on the big points, growing into a slam contender before our eyes.
That Thiem effort left him spent; the loss of a set focused Nadal even more- the Spaniard dropped just one more game.
Behind Nadal in the Roland Garros men’s singles titles history books is Bjorn Borg with 6. In the women’s game, the record is 7, held by Chris Evert.
At the other majors, in the Open era, Federer has the record at Wimbledon with 8, Connors, Sampras and Federer are tied at 5 at the US Open, and Djokovic tops the leaderboard in Australia with 7.
That the players with the record haul at slams in the Open era are the most recent greats makes sense. As the field deepens and players are more athletic and have more stamina and access to greater advances in bio-mechanics and science and nutrition and coaching, the very best are fitter and playing longer than legends of the past.
Surface homogenisation also means that those legends such as Nadal, Federer and Djokivic who have won the last eleven slams and 54 of the last 65 (83%) can transfer their styles and skills across, for the most part, all surfaces (all three have won the career slam, Djokovic holding all four slams at one stage of his career; all
Also, while those areas of the sport are improving, some have stayed the same, namely racket technology, which means players coming up do not have an advantage of playing with stronger more powerful rackets, and the only changes taking place, such as bigger racket heads play into the hands of older players, compensating for their drop in foot speed.
Nadal is a player of his time, and he’s in the right time and place, and that is not lost on him. While the current crop of players, and those before them, are trying to find their way, Nadal found his a long time ago, and he’s too disciplined, too professional, and just too good to go off track any time soon.
Roger Federer has had many a fine run at Roland Garros and one truly great one, that 2009 title win.
Those fine runs- to the semis in 2005 and 2012, and the finals in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2011, have all, bar one (2012, lost to Djokovic), ended at the hands of Rafa Nadal.
That pattern is likely to repeat itself in this year’s semi-finals when Federer and Nadal meet at Roland Garros for the 6th time, their 39th career meeting. (Nadal leads 23-15).
A lot has happened since their last Roland Garros meeting in the 2011 final, a four set Nadal win. This time round, Federer has the hold on their rivalry, winning the last six meetings (the last one a walkover in Indian Wells), and this time he will be playing all out attack tennis. There will be no seeing if he can size up to Nadal from the baseline this time.
Still, an awful lot is still the same. Nadal is, other than in his third round match versus David Goffin, romping through the draw.
Goffin, much like Federer is, was in fine form, the kind that takes a set of Nadal in Paris, and it would not be out of the question to imagine Federer riding a wave of Parisian support, his own good form, and his clay court gifts to claim a set versus Nadal. He has, after all, taken Nadal to four sets in four of their five Roland Garros meetings.
But a Federer win? How out of the question is that?
As Federer himself said this event, fans come to the stadium to see who will win; they would stay at home if it was a foregone conclusion.
There is wisdom in that truism and Federer, who has been the victim of many an upset over his career, a few at the hands of Nadal, is a worthy sage.
Nadal is unlikely to have a bad day in the Roland Garros semis- he’s 11-0 at that stage- and he’s winning the match ups which favor him rather comfortably. Yet, upsets do happen, and what better an upset than Federer, aged 37, finally getting that Roland Garros Nadal win?
Still, it seems the stuff of dreams. Upsets do happen, yes, but they usually have some underlying factors surging them on- an off form or injured higher ranked player, a fundamentally unsound match up in favor of the upsetter, or an underdog in the form of their life.
Nadal is plagued by injuries but clay is kinder to his joints than hard courts and he seems to have his body in healthy enough shape. As for form, Kei Nishikori could testify as to how in form the defending champion is. While this match up has in the last few years swung in favor of Federer, all those matches have been on hard, and Nadal is unquestionably the favorite when they meet on Clay. Federer is in very good form, but the form of his life? So far, he’s beaten the players he should beat and has yet to come up against anyone who would really push him such as Stefanos Tsitsipas might have. That poor break point conversion- 2-18 versus Wawrinka in the quarters- does not suggest he’s having the return game of his life, either.
The signs point to a Nadal four set win and we should not lose all heart in that sense of inevitability. Indeed many a fan will be watching this match not overly in doubt as to the outcome. Instead, they will be watching it to see Fedal part 39, their sixth meeting at Roland Garros. The clock is ticking on this one, and while the match might be too quick for some, the historical spectacle of these two meeting will make every second one to keep an eye on, ever hoping it may not just be about history after all, but more about that unknown conclusion Federer himself has spoken of.
Two days. Two whole days until Roland Garros. With plenty of players breaking through this season and a whole host of different champions on the tour, and some old favorites, players and narratives, at the fore, this Roland Garros has the potential to be one of the most historically significant and downright entertaining for a while.
Top half
First quarter
Heading the draw is world No.1 Novak Djokovic who is 1 slam
away from holding all four slams at once for
the second time in his career. Yes, Roger and Rafa fans, you read that
right.
Djokovic has a fairly tricky opener as openers go for top
seeds- he’s drawn the improving youngster Hubert Hurkacz.
Gilles Simon in round 3 would give Djokovic something to
think about and Borna Coric in round 4 won’t let him get away with putting in
one of his customary early round stinkers.
Zverev or Lajovic in the quarters would also be a challenge,
but neither are known quantities at slams and the man currently holding three
of them is likely to go through a little ruffled but with his hair neatly back
in its place for the semis.
Winner of this quarter: Novak Djokovic
Second quarter
Dominic Thiem is the top ranked player in this section. He did not have as great a Clay season as we expected, but his unexpected Indian Wells triumph balances that out.
The tournament will really start for Thiem in the fourth
round where Fernando Verdasco could be lying in wait to repeat his Rome upset
of the Austrian.
Winner of this quarter: Thiem. He’s really come into his own since reaching the Roland Garros final last season. That US Open quarter final loss to Nadal and the Indian Wells win show that far from being just a clay courter, he is a great player whose baseline power and sheer will could take him back into the Paris semis to give himself another shot at playing for the title.
Bottom half
Third quarter
Third seed Roger Federer leads this section of the draw
which by default makes this the most open section of the draw.
Federer performed well in Madrid and Rome, reaching two quarters, but his withdrawal from his Rome quarter final against Stefanos Tsitsipas suggests that if he has a few tricky matches to get going the going might come to a halt before he reaches his seeded position in the semis.
Lorenzo Sonego in round 1, Malek Jaziri in round 2, and possibly Hungarian Open champion Matteo Berrettini in round 3 will be challenging for the Swiss, though his versatility and clay court experience- he is a former champion in Paris no less- should see him through.
Last year’s surprise semi-finalist Marco Cecchinato or the recent Rome last four competitor Diego Schwartzman in round 4 may be a little too much for the Swiss and leave him a little spent, if he survives, for a Tsitsipas Slam rematch in the last eight.
Winner of this quarter: Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Tsitsipas is a likely contender for an upset- a young talented and high-achieving player for his age with a lot of hype behind him- but he’s got a decent draw ( a raw Tiafoe in round 3 and Wawrinka and Cilic in round 4 are as good as it gets to be honest) and the hype is justified- he really is that good.
Fourth quarter
Second seed Nadal may be at the bottom of the draw but he’s
top of the pile at Roland Garros as the 11 time champion.
Having the likes of David Goffin, Nikoloz Basilashvili and
Guido Pella in his section should have fans worrying for him, but his Rome run
put any concerns about his form to rest. As Nadal himself said, what happened
in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid happened. In Paris, everytime Nadal steps
on the court is a new day even if it seems like a groundhog one for those
wishing for a little more unpredictability in their professional tennis.
Winner of this quarter: Nadal. He’s going to be vulnerable early on, and there’ll be some tense moments, but he’s Nadal and this is Roland Garros and history tells us only a Soderling like performance, a huge drop in form, or an injury end his Roland Garros campaigns before the semis.
Semi-final predictions:
Top half:
Djokovic defeats Thiem.
Bottom half:
Nadal defeats Tsitsipas.
Unfortunately for Thiem and Tsitsipas, though they will give their all in the semis, they may have overplayed by then and it may not be enough.
Djokovic and Nadal have also played plenty of tennis and are older so this rule might seem like it works for them, too, but it’s the mental toll of overplaying that will likely do for the younger pair who still lack the big match experience that has made Nadal and Djokovic the mentally tough players they have become even when playing their seventh match of a slam and going into the fourth set.
Holding all four slams at once twice in your career- to be a match away from that feat, to be the Madrid champion and Rome runner up, to be the best player in five setters on the tour right now, and to have the edge those Wimbledon and Australian Open wins give you over your potential Roland Garros final opponent, all those factors combined are overwhelmingly in favor of Djokovic.
Between these two, though, history often goes out the window when they are both in form, as we saw just last year in the Wimbledon semis, and in many ways, considering how they’ll be continuing their recent good form if they make the final, then the championship match will be a fresh start.
Still, in the difficult business of predicting winners before the tournament starts, and in a rivalry so balanced but with so many twists and turns, you have to go with the factor that is the biggest clincher in tennis- what’s between the ears, and right now no one has a tennis brain as tuned in to Grand Slam tennis than Novak Djokovic.
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A dark horse has not won Roland Garros in some time- Gaston Gaudio, ranked 44 at the time, was the last man to do so in 2004. That was before the Rafa Nadal reign in Paris began, and with the Spaniard still in slam winning form, it’s hard to see another dark horse making a bolt for it and crossing the line. Still, if anyone is going to get our heads spinning a la Gaudio, Kuerten or Chang, it could be one of these five.
David Goffin
Goffin is a little high profile for a dark horse, but he’s not expected to win the event, is not a top 16 seed (he’s seeded 28), and he’s underachieved for someone of his skill, talent and promise. But, while Goffin has all those attributes in his favor when it comes to his Roland Garros chances, he is, unfortunately, this year, in Rafa Nadal’s last 32 section.
Still, that may be the best stage for Goffin to meet the defending champion and get the win. Nadal has only exited that stage of the tournament in 2016 when he had to withdraw with a left wrist injury, but a couple of weeks shy of his 33rd birthday, the Spaniard is going to suffer more and more random bad days here and there, as we have seen this Clay season in which he did not win an event until Rome, and those days are more likely to be at the start of the event, where last year Nadal was not playing his best tennis, than in the later stages of the draw.
In 2018, Nadal did not meet anyone who could take advantage of his less than stellar early round performances, but Goffin won’t let him get away with anything less than his best.
If a dark horse is going to make a run for it then a win versus the tournament favorite is the best way to get things going, as Chang did when he beat Ivan Lendl in the fourth round on his jaunt to the 1989 title.
Such a victory would give Goffin all the confidence he needed to finally realize all that potential he has shown us over the years which peaked when he reached the ATP WTF ’17 finals.
One unlucky injury after another – from falling on tarp at Roland Garros ’17 to hitting his eye with his racket at Rotterdam ’18- has gotten in the way of Goffin delivering on the promise he showed on his run to the ’12 Roland Garros fourth round.
However, if you believe in tennis Gods and balance then Goffin is certainly due a little good fortune, and catching Nadal on a bad day at Roland Garros would definitely even matters out for him if not swing the pendulum of fate overwhelmingly in his favor.
Cristian Garin
22 year old Garin has won Clay titles in Houston and Munich this season and is the 2013 Roland Garros junior champ. The Chilean has future men’s singles French Open champ written all over him.
He’s drawn the improving Reilly Opelka in round 1 and the vulnerable and unpredictable 24th seed Stan Wawrinka in round 2.
If the draw had not been kind enough to him, he’s then potentially got Marin Cilic (11) in round 3. Cilic on his day could send Garin packing in straights, but Cilic has more off days than good recently, and is as good a former slam champ and Roland Garros quarter finalist an up and comer could hope to meet.
Tsitsipas in the round of 16 is a tough proposition, but the Greek is still raw and Garin won’t be intimidated. This section of the draw is the Federer one, and the Swiss’ presence in the quarters is anything but a certainty. Schwartzman, Cecchinato and Berrettini are all lurking in Federer’s section, and a Garin match versus one of that trio would be like Roland Garros of the 90s- unpredictable and prowling with Clay courters looking to make the tournament their own.
Felix Auger Aliassime
Felix Auger Aliassime is the 25th seed, the Rio champ and is in Juan Martin del Potro’s section of the draw.
del Potro is a player no one wants to see opposite the net in a big event, but he’s also only played 8 matches all season while FAA is on an escalating career trajectory, going 17-11 for the year and rising from 108 at the start of the year to his current ranking of 28.
Karen Khachanov and Lucas Pouille could await in the last 16 and neither are consistent enough to be sure they will make it there or deliver if they do.
Thiem in the quarters could be where FAA falls, but Thiem might have the very tricky Fernando Verdasco on his hands in his last 16. The Spaniard conquered Thiem in Rome and gets up for potential upsets early on in Slams. The Spaniard, however, is not so strong following up on those shock wins, so FAA could find the draw opening up and the semis of a slam at his feet.
The tennis world would be at his feet, too, if he could break through and win a slam aged 18 and seeded 25.
Guido Pella
The Argentinian made Rafa Nadal looked very shaky indeed when he took him to a first set tiebreak in their Monte Carlo last eight match.
Pella comes into the French Open ranked 22 in the world (he was 66 starting the year) and having won his first ever title at the age of 28 in Sao Paulo (he’s since turned 29).
Pella is 9-5 in the European Clay season and that performance vs Nadal in Monte Carlo was the peak, but he’ll go into the event match fit and fairly fresh which could see him into the second week of a slam for the first time in his career (he’s 3-4 lifetime at the French).
Dusan Lajovic
The Monte Carlo finalist has, at 28, hit his prime. He won’t be going under the radar if he meets Nick Kyrgios in round 2, and in round 3 he could be hitting the headlines beating Sascha Zverev, who he had on the ropes in last year’s event, in round 3.
Fognini, Lajovic’s Monte Carlo conqueror, could be his last 16 opponent, and five sets would give the Serb a little more time to settle his nerves and capitalize on any of the Italian’s lapses in a match.
Djokovic in the quarters could be a match too far. But, if Lajovic is going to write his name alongside Chang, Kuerten and Gaudio, he’ll have to topple one of the favorites along the way, and you’d rather meet Djokovic before the semis in a slam than after which is when the world No.1 starts going up the gears as each set goes by.
Beating Djokovic at that stage would be the stuff of dark horse dreams, but strange things happen at Grand Slams and consistent clay courters strong off both wings and with years of experience have had strange and wonderful experiences at Roland Garros and Lajovic should call Gaston Gaudio for a chat should he find himself on the verge of experiencing them.
They’re not quite favorites, struggling with form or health or lacking experience, and not quite dark horses, ranked too high or too well established. These are the long-shots, the Roland Garros competitors who could get their hands on the trophy if talent, hard work and a few strokes of luck collide.
Juan Martin del Potro
del Potro is a two time semi-finalist at the French (’09, ’18) and he just competed vs Djokovic in Rome in one of the best contests this Clay season.
That battle was even more impressive considering del Potro had been out of the game from Shanghai ’18 to Delray Beach ’19 with a patella fracture and had played in just 7 matches all season before forcing Djokovic to play like a world No.1 late into the Roman night.
del Potro’s reputation has always been as a big match player so if he is going into a slam and is healthy and match fit, and that Djokovic match has to be worth a few extra matches at least, he’s got a shot at making the business end of the tournament.
He’s seeded 8th, thanks to his run to last year’s semis and the US Open final. Slams is where del Potro really thrives and where he brings the crowd alive and neither of the top four seeds, Djokovic, Nadal, Federer and Thiem, are going to want to face him in the last eight.
He’s not had the best clay season (6-4), but he’s very capable on Clay (remember Madrid ’14?). He’s also consistent in slams (he’s 4R-QF-SF-QF) and he’s been to a slam final (US Open ’14).
Nishikori’s days as a favorite at a slam, and his name was often mentioned after that US Open run, may be done, but with his attacking baseline game and years of big match experience, he’s as perfect a long shot as it gets. Let’s see if the draw opens and where he lands.
Borna Coric
Coric’s best slam appearance is the Australian Open fourth round earlier this season.
He’s made the third round three times in his four Roland Garros appearances and he’ll be seeded 13 this time (he was unseeded in his previous visits) so a run to the last 16 for the consistent Croatian would be anything but a surprise.
That 13th seed is a touch unlucky though. In the last 16, he’ll meet either Djokovic, Nadal, Federer or Thiem.
Coric has the tactical acumen, the baseline consistency, and the fitness to excel on Clay and give a match to any of those four, and they better be on their games otherwise, if Coric senses his chances, he’s worked too hard to improve his game to let them pass.
Gael Monfils
Strange and spectacular things happen at slams, particularly Roland Garros, and Gael Monfils winning would be both of those.
Monfils won Rotterdam this season and since then, when he’s been beaten, it’s either been in a tight three setter (to Tsitsipas in the Dubai semis; to Davidovich Fokina in the Estoril quarters and to Federer in the Madrid last 16) or he’s withdrawn (to Thiem in the Indian Wells quarters with left achilles tendon trouble).
No half hearted efforts, no clowning; the new focused Monfils is ready to maximise his athletic and shot-making gifts. Roland Garros, before a home crowd and where’s he’s made a semi-final (‘08) and three quarters, his best group of results in a slam, is the place to do so.
Stan Wawrinka
You can’t discount a former champ on the road back and as good a big match player as Wawrinka.
Wawrinka is seeded 25 and has climbed up to being seeded in a slam from a world ranking of No. 66 at the start of the season thanks to his run to the Rotterdam final and 3 runs to tour quarter-finals.
His winning the title is a little far-fetched, but there are only four multi slam champs in the draw and he’s one of them. If he makes the second week, he can beat anyone in front of him, even Nadal, who looked good in Rome but is prone to defeats by fearless and brutal ball-strikers, and Wawrinka is one of those par excellence.
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The Austrian started his European Clay season well with his seasonal Clay court victory over Nadal. But, after winning the Barcelona title with a convincing performance versus Daniil Medvedev, he went down to Djokovic in the Madrid semis and was then upset by Fernando Verdasco in his Rome opener. Still, losing to Djokovic in the latter stages of an ATP 1000 is anything but shameful and Verdasco is a name no top player wants to see in their opening draw.
That early Rome loss gives Thiem a little time to rest and recover from his busy start to 2019. He’s played 25 matches this season (17-8) and he’ll need all the prep time he can get if he wants to make it 24-8 come June 9th and win his breakthrough slam in the process.
After Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas is the next player most likely to break through.
The Greek adds a much needed dynamic into clay court tennis; the 20 year can play from the baseline with anyone, but steps inside the court and up to the net with the natural flow and touch of the very few.
Tsitsipas is as good a throwback as it gets to the del Potros, Gugas and Safins of the tennis world, young players who took the elite on and won the sport’s biggest prizes. He hasn’t quite done so yet, but the potential is there – Tsitsipas is fearless, confident and full of flair, and he’s got a slam semi, 2 ATP 1000 finals (Toronto ’18, Madrid ’19) and wins over Federer, Nadal and Djokovic to prove it.
Sascha Zverev should be higher up on this list considering his clay prowess and his run to the WTF ’18 trophy,but his career trajectory failed to keep rising. This year, he’s 15-10; at the same stage in ’18, he was 30-8 (including Davis Cup).
The German grabbed tennis headlines on Clay in the summer of ’14 and his best slam performance came at last year’s Roland Garros. It would be poetic if his under-performance in regular tour events was balanced out by his first run to a slam final. He’s certainly not in danger of having overplayed like Thiem and Tsitsipas. He also gets to go under the radar considering his recent form, which will be a breathe of fresh air for a young player suffocated at slams by the weight of expectation.
Ignoring one of the season’s ATP 1000 Clay trophy winners would be inconsiderate if not ignorant, but Fabio Fognini would not have made the list under any other circumstances. The talented and divisive Italian finally put it all together to win this season’s Monte Carlo trophy, beating Nadal for the third time on Clay no less. Since that win, Fognini has been consistent, reaching the fourth rounds of Madrid and Rome and losing to Thiem and Tsitsipas respectively. Winning tournaments few expected him to do so and reaching his seeded position in ATP 1000s are encouraging signs for the Italian going into Roland Garros where he’s had his sole quarter-final slam appearance (’11). It’s not likely he’ll win the title, but if he did, he’d have fooled us twice, and what a fun trick it would be to watch him pull off.
Finally, we come to Roger Federer. The Swiss’ return to Clay has been successful- a close loss to Thiem in the Madrid QFs and a battling victory over Coric in the Rome last sixteen before withdrawing from his quarter final with Tsitsipas. That rare withdrawal was precautionary, and wise. The Swiss is the second best Clay courter of his era, is in decent form after winning in Miami and having Clay court match play, and the best of five format at Roland Garros suits him more than it does the majority of the rest of the draw,. So, while he’s not an out and out favorite, if he finds himself in the business end of things and gets a bit of luck, we could end up with the entertaining spectacle that would be Federer winning slam no.21 in Paris.
Thanks for reading this article. If you enjoyed it, please share it. Also, come back tomorrow when I’ll be looking at some of the tournament long-shots to take the title.
