Indian Wells Preview Five Scenarios

Nadal Indian Wells
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Which of the five scenarios below would you like to see play out in Indian Wells?

A vet wins his first ATP 1000 title

Last year Juan Martin del Potro won his first ATP 1000 title beating Roger Federer in a thrilling match. That was del Potro’s first ATP 1000 win, nine years after he won the US Open.

Seeing vets win big in the latter stages of their career brings out the sentimentality in tennis fans and a victory for Kei Nishikori, in particular, would be a real boost, especially considering the Japanese’ potential (that USO ’14 final seems so far away now) and his comeback from injury.

Nishikori tends to do better in Miami than in IW. He’s 10-9 in the desert, but he has reached the quarters in his last two appearances (’16, ’17).

Nishikori’s draw: The 6th seed has been drawn Lucas Pouille in round 3, Cilic in round 4, Federer in the QF, Nadal in the semis, and Djokovic in the final. It would be some run if he makes it.

An up and comer wins his 1st ATP 1000

Karen Khachanov won the last ATP 1000 of ’18 in Paris and it is always inspiring to have a youngster break through on the big stage especially in this current period of tennis dominated by the vets.

Daniil Medvedev could be the next big hope to win an ATP 1000. Hard courts are his best surface and he’s not afraid of anyone.

Medvedev’s draw: Medvedev has drawn Goffin, Nadal, Isner, Federer and Djokovic.

Rafa Nadal bounces back from his Australian Open final loss.

Nadal has won in IW three times (’07, ’09, ’13).

Nadal’s experience means he can be philosophical about that bruising defeat to Novak Djokovic in this year’s Australian Open final.

But, he won’t want that memory to be the one he goes into the Clay season with and a win in Indian Wells would give his confidence a much needed boost with the figure of Djokovic looming over his Roland Garros hopes.

Nadal’s draw: Nadal has drawn Schwartzman, Medvedev, Isner, Federer and Djokovic.

Roger Federer gets closer to Connor’s record

Federer was impressive in Dubai winning title 100.

Connor’s record of 109 cannot feel too far away. Federer could win titles in places like Stuttgart, Halle and Basel if his big titles days are done.

No one would write off Federer winning another big title, though, and it could happen in Indian Wells considering his run in Dubai and the boost he must be feeling after #RF100.

Federer’s draw: He’s drawn Fucsovics, Fognini, Nishikori, Nadal and Djokovic.

Novak Djokovic Prime part 3 races on

Djokovic has a great record in Indian Wells with 5 titles (’08, ’11, ’14-’16). He’s won it in all his prime periods of play. It’s still early in the season so it will not be a tired Djokovic turning up to this big event at the mercy of an in-form rival. This will be Djokovic 3.0.

Djokovic’s draw: He has drawn Nick Kyrgios, Cecchinato, Thiem, Zverev and Nadal. They’ve all beaten Djokovic in the last couple of years, so on paper it’s a tough draw, but on the Indian Wells hard courts and at this stage of his career, it should be a walk in the nicely manicured gardens of Indian Wells.

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Australian Open Final Novak Djokovic Defeats Rafa Nadal

Djokovic
Photo courtesy of Wikimedia commons.

Australian Open Men’s Final- Novak Djokovic d. Rafa Nadal 6-3, 6-2, 6-3.

There were a couple of narratives waiting to be told this Australian Open, but Novak Djokovic’s title win means they will have to keep on waiting, and that wait could be a while.

One narrative, the changing of the guard, was dismissed in the semis by Nadal’s defeat of Stefanos Tsitsipas. The re-emergence of Rafa Nadal with his abbreviated serve and first strike approach, was another of the stories tipped to be the headline of the tournament.

The narrative that actually played out, however, was one told many times before- Novak Djokovic winning the Australian Open.

The top seed’s 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 defeat of Rafa Nadal won him his 7th slam down under, his 15th in all (taking him above Pete Sampras), and his third in a row.

The prologue to the tournament opened with Djokovic as the main character with the bookmakers, pundits, and tennis world expecting a Djokovic win.

The top seed did not come in on the best form, losing his last two finals of 2018 to Karen Khachanov (Paris) and Sascha Zverev (WTF) and suffering a defeat to Roberto Bautista Agut in the Doha semis, but he did come in as the member of the Big Three with the most Grand slam momentum, and with the Big Three winning the previous eight slams, it did not look like that would change anytime soon.

Nevertheless, it was not long before the story of Djokovic potentially winning the title faded from the headlines as the top seed did not start the tournament well, beating qualifier Mitchell Krueger as expected in round 1, but then putting in a sub par performance in round two versus Jo-Wilfred Tsonga and round three versus Denis Shapovalov.

All eyes and headlines turned to the generations below Djokovic when Stefanos Tsitspias came along and defeated Roger Federer in the fourth round, the match of the tournament.

The Next Gen and the Next in Line army, it was rumored by many, had arrived to perform a coup– Frances Tiafoe was into the quarters, too, and some of the more recent and lost generations were making noise, as well- Lucas Pouille, Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic.

Rafa Nadal was doing his fair share of quelling the rebellion, defeating Alex di Minaur, Frances Tiafoe, and Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets, and the spotlight turned to the Spaniard, lighting him up as a favorite to take the title, as he stood in on the return, dictated with his serve, and controlled points with his forehand down the line.

Meanwhile Djokovic was still in the background, winning his matches in chaotic fashion- the struggle versus Daniil Medvedev, Kei Nishikori’s retirement, Lucas Pouille’s nerves. His habit of saving his best to last questioned, the likelihood of delivering the kind of focused, high level tennis to defeat such an in-form rival as Nadal in the final thought by some to be slim.

Chaos gave way to cohesion in the final, however. Djokovic came out playing with an easy and focused manner, as if he had played every match that way.

The Serb broke the Spaniard early in the first set to set the tone and his own serve was untouchable. The top seed lost just six points on his serve in the first set and had a 71 first serve percentage and 100% conversion rate.

In set 2, Djokovic’s first serve percentage stayed at 71% but his conversion rate dropped to 75, but the serve was still too good, the Serbian not offering Nadal a single break point, and breaking Nadal twice.

Nadal got a glimpse of just one break point, in the third set. The Spaniard was getting more into Djokivic’s service games now, the top seed’s first serve percentage dropping to 68, but his winning percentage was still high at 76% and the second serve was at 83 (84% the entire match).

When Djokovic was not dominating on serve and breaking down the Nadal serve, (he won 42% of receiving points), he was breaking down the second seed’s revamped hard court game.

Nadal’s ground strokes that looked so formidable in the first six rounds now looked ordinary as the second seed was pushed back behind the baseline with depth and consistency and pulled out wide with angles, far away from the baseline where he, Nadal, had been looking so at home, and right where Djokovic wanted him, off balance and on the run.

The Nadal revamped hard court game was now reduced to looking like a naive plan B by a Djokovic who, while Nadal was recovering from injury post US Open, was the most consistent player on the tour, on his day the very best, returning to number 1 in the world rankings and who, in the first Grand slam final of the 2019 season, when it mattered most, was easing into that consistency and greatness in synchronicity, hitting winners (he hit 34 in all), forcing errors and putting pressure on Nadal to conjure up unforced errors, 28 of them.

It’s no myth Novak Djokovic plays his best tennis in finals. He gets there doing what he has to in less than mythical fashion, appearing almost human, careful not to peak, changing into one of his many guises as the different opponents come his way, and then when it matters, he dons his very best outfit- the Grand Slam winning final one: solid, high percentage serving, the best returning in the game, deep and varied ground-strokes, decisive switches between offense and defense, a low unforced error count (he hit nine the entire match), perfect point construction with the right moves up the court and to the net, and the odd element of surprise, a beautiful half volley drop shot in the heart of the third set a reminder of his exceptional talent often shrouded in the efficiency and common sense of his game.

The jewel on the costume, though, is what turns mythical tales of Djokovic in Slam finals since 2014 into cold hard reality for his opponents- the mental toughness and belief, so strong on this day in particular it played a huge part in inflicting on Nadal his first straight sets defeat in his 25 Grand Slam finals.

Djokovic’s championship material narrative may have been placed in the myths and legends category by some parts of the tennis media this Australian Open, but the legend himself always believed his claims to the trophy would end up where it belonged, in the history section.

The Serbian holding the trophy aloft is the final and definitive image of the event and the fading, lingering memory we will take away is his hard court brilliance, delivered when nothing less than brilliance would do, and if we start thinking his final’s day peak play is a myth in future, he’ll be all too ready to turn up on finals day and orate it to us himself.

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Australian Open Men’s Final Preview Novak Djokovic Vs Rafa Nadal

Roland Garros
Photo courtesy of b92.net

Where to begin with these two meeting, for the 53rd time?

Djokovic leads 27-25, but perhaps the most significant number is the 18-7 Djokovic leads in the hard court head to head. But while that stat suggests in this match up Djokovic tends to have the upper hand on hard courts, it’s wise to leave the head to head to the side when considering who will emerge the winner in this their second Australian Open final, the first that classic five setter in 2012.

This unpredictability comes partly because Djokovic’s form has been hard to pin down and partly due to Nadal’s re-emergence as a healthy hard court slam contender.

That Nadal 2.0 restructured hard court game was a necessity after he had to retire during his US Open semi-final ’18 match with a knee injury and skip the rest off the season.

To prolong Nadal’s career and increase his chances of what’s left of it being as successful as possible, Nadal arrived in Melbourne brandishing a tinkered with serve and game.

The abbreviated and very effective serve, designed to protect the ankle he had surgery on in November last year, and the aggressive mindset which features Nadal stepping into the court and finishing points quickly has seen Nadal romp through the draw facing 17 break points and not dropping a set. He’s beaten James Duckworth, Matthew Ebden, Alex di Minaur, Tomas Berdych, Frances Tiafoe and Stefanos Tsitsipas to get there.

That rolecall is not filled with former slam champs and No.1s, but it’s a decent enough list and though none of them really tested him, they were never really allowed to either.

How Novak Djokovic plays this efficient and ruthless Nadal steamrolling his way through the draw like it was played on his beloved clay is one of the two big questions going into this match.

The other one is how Nadal’s new game stands up to its first real test.

Djokovic has not impressed as Nadal has in his run to the final. He’s beaten Mitchell Kreuger, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Denis Shapovalov, Daniil Medvedev, Kei Nishikori (ret, injured) and Lucas Pouille, but other than in his last match, it has been hard to assess his true form, and even versus Pouille, the Frenchman’s nerves and sub par performance still leave us none the wiser as to whether or not Djokovic can hit top gear.

Still, Djokovic can raise his game at accelerated levels and if he’s going to do it, it’ll be in the final, and he’ll need to in order to cope with Nadal on Sunday.

Djokovic won’t be phased by the Nadal serve- he reads the serve better than anyone and he might even enjoy the speedier delivery. However, he also won’t get as many top spin laden second serves as he used to enjoy from Nadal. Still, the Djokovic return is the best in the game and while he may not have an easy time of it with Nadal’s revamped serve, if you raise your serve, Djokovic will raise his return.

Regarding facing Nadal from the baseline, Djokovic will not get away with any short balls in this match so he’ll be on his baseline game early on, hitting deep and with angles, working himself into a rhythm to keep Nadal back and on the run- which is precisely what Nadal’s revamped game is designed to prevent, but that revamp may not be enough versus the player most likely to get you running and keep you running in the game.

In the forehand to backhand cross-court rallies, Djokovic will also be looking to be aggressive and hit winners, but if he’s on the defense, he can be aggressive, too, his movement and reach meaning he has the strength and depth of shot to extend the rallies and lure Nadal into over hitting, and while Nadal is hitting that forehand down the line well, Djokovic will ask the questions of just how well and when.

Which brings us to the second question- how Nadal is going to stand up to the test.

Expect Nadal to be precise and take risks and get his attacking game in form early on.

If he can’t execute his new game, then expect Nadal to go down swinging as well- he knows only too well how his hard court matches end with a Djokovic in form and he won’t want to revert back to those old patterns.

On the serve, the pressure will be on, but this is Nadal. Pressure is his friend. That serve already eases any worries he might have about aggravating his ankle so that’s one thing less to worry about.

If the serve is working well, Nadal can get plenty of points knocking off short returns for winners. That’ll conserve his energy for when things do get extended from the back of the court.

Returning Djokovic’s serve, one thing Nadal will have to go for it on any second returns or if he’s feeling cautious work the point to his forehand and unleash.

In tiebreaks, Nadal’s re-invigorated game will really come into play and he will have the advantage if he’s brave. But Djokovic will step up, too, which is why this match is so highly-anticipated.

Choosing a winner here is next to impossible. It’s made even more so by the faster conditions and the balls, which will slow down and fluff up more in the night time humidity, conditions respectively, factors which favor both players in their own ways- Nadal because it’s all about the speed for him right now and Djokovic because the longer the balls are kept in play, the fluffier they get and the harder it will be for Nadal to hit winners.

What really decides this match is who holds up best mentally on the big points and this rivalry- led 27-25 by Djokovic, 18-7 on hard courts- tends to swing back and forth whenever one or the other makes a big improvement in their game and brings that work into effect when it matters, an improvement usually inspired by the desire to defeat the other one.

We’ve already seen that inspiration this tournament with Djokovic playing his best match yet, defeating Lucas Pouille for the loss of four games, and then revealing his goal was to lose less games than the six Nadal dropped to Tsitsipas.

Yet it’s Nadal who has made the biggest improvements and adjustments to his game in the long-term, and to great effect, which is why I am picking him to win in four sets. (Five, and it’s Djokovic’s).

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Novak Djokovic Vs Lucas Pouille Australian Open Semi-final Preview

Djokovic
Photo courtesy of Wikimedia commons.

Novak Djokovic (1) Vs Lucas Pouille (28) Australian Open Semi-final Preview.

Pouille and Djokovic, who practice together, have never played each other on the tour, and it’s quite the stage for their competitive introduction.

Djokovic has been to the Australian Open semis 6 times and has never lost at that stage.

Meanwhile, this is 24 year old Pouille’s first ever slam semi. This is Djokovic’s 34th, and he’s won 23 of the 33 he has played.

That kind of experience really only makes a difference when there is a chance in the match up of the underdog winning. A bad match up is a bad match up whatever the stage, but when things could go either way, experience can be a tiebreaker.

There are not that many bad match ups for Djokovic. The only players he does not match up well with are those executing their style at the top of their game- ballstrikers like Wawrinka, all courters like Federer, aggressive baseliners like Nadal, big servers like Isner.

If you had to box the very unique Lucas Pouille, you’d put him in the all court one. There are not many of those around, and it’s interesting that the other surprise semi-finalist this Open is also an all-courter, Stefanos Tsitispas.

Lucas can do everything very well, but he doesn’t excel at any one aspect of his game. On his day, he’s good enough to beat a struggling Nadal at the US Open in a fifth set tiebreaker and reach the quarters in ’16, following up his Wimbledon quarter-final a couple of months before, and he’s good enough to spend 2 weeks in the top ten (at No.10) in late March ’18.

But while Pouille can be very good when on, he can also be very poor, hitting unforced errors after unforced error and lacking focus.

That lack of focus is gone now that Amelie Mauresmo is in his camp. One of the women’s game’s great all court players who conquered her demons to world No.1 and slam winning degree, if anyone can teach you about focus and perspective in a match, it’s Mauresmo.

Pouille, in his post Raonic win interview, talked of not focusing on winning but improving and practicing new things in a match, of staying in the moment. Mauresmo has his ear, and he’s listening.

Djokovic has not exactly been singing this tournament, and we don’t quite know where he is on the scale of six time former champion and the the player who crashed out in the fourth and second round the last two seasons respectively.

So, not only is Pouille playing in new territory stage wise, he also doesn’t quite know who is going to be across the net.

Djokovic will take advantage of both unknowns. He will keep Pouille in the dark from the start, letting Pouille set the tone. If it’s a nervous one, Djokovic will make those nerves even worse. If it’s a hot and quick start, Djokovic will stay with him and then go up a gear on the big points.

That’s when Pouille will need to focus. That’s when he’ll not have to care if he wins or loses but on improving.

And improve he will, for what better training to make you a better competitor and player than facing Novak Djokovic and his many guises on Rod Laver Arena at the Australian Open?

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Australian Open Semi-final Men’s Preview Rafa Nadal Vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas
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Australian Open Men’s Semi final preview Rafa Nadal (2) Vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (14).

Rafa Nadal has returned from his post 2018 US Open injury lay-off with a fine-tuned hard court friendly game and his usual determination and focus, a lethal mix, as his five opponents so far have found out.

The Spaniard, who had to retire mid match in the Australian Open QF and the US Open SF in 2018, has reached another grand slam semi-final, his 30th, and he’s done it without dropping a set.

Not that he’s injury free- that taping on his stomach is unlikely a fashion statement, though he won’t talk about it, saying in his post interview it was just something that happened in the tournament- but all players play with some form of injury concern and how they manage and cope with that often matters more than anything else.

Nadal’s serve is one example of managing an injury. The shortened motion prevents aggravating the ankle he had surgery on. It’s working well for him, too. He’s faced 15 break points in all and been broken just twice, in his first rounder.

He’s also worked on his first shot so he can finish points quicker and preserve his ageing body.

Granted, he’s not faced any one with a return that could be listed in their strengths, and he won’t in his next match either versus Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Tsitsipas has, as it is, more than enough strengths to go round- an intelligent serve, a tremendous forehand and single handed backhand, rare and sharp net skills, to name a few- but none of them can really hurt Nadal enough to keep him out of the match. Nadal is about as complete a player as it gets, and will be coming at Tsitsipas with a great return, depth and speed of shot to keep an opponent back, ground-strokes to better anyone out there and speed and accuracy of passing shot to make any would be volleyer think twice.

Tsitsipas alredy knows just how good Nadal is- they have met twice, last year, with Nadal winning easily in Barcelona and then coming out on top in a more testing encounter in the Toronto final.

Tsistsipas said, after beating Bautista Agut to reach the semi-final, that after that Toronto match:

“I remember coming back to the locker room and promising to myself I’m going to do much better against him next time. It felt like I understood a bit better what he was doing on the court after that match, and especially on hard court.”

And that tactical awareness and experience will no doubt help him out in what will be a consolation of a contest for those hoping to have seen another installment of Fedal, and what will be a fascinating match nonetheless for neutrals.

Tsitsipas is the youngest player in a slam semi since Djokovic in New York ’07. Djokovic went on to reach the final, and if Tsitsipas is going to replicate that achievement and give tennis the youthful injection it’s ageing body is crying out for, he’s going to have to play some inspired grand slam champion like material tennis, because Nadal is the man to beat in slams this past 15 years and anything less than great comes up second best.

This match is not a foregone conclusion, though. We know Tsitsipas can back up big wins, that he can produce a very high standard of tennis to beat the game’s best players one after another, that he can play better on the big points than his opponent whoever they are. He did it in Toronto and he’s done it here by following up the Federer win beating Bautista Agut, and that makes him a rare young player, the trend more often being to have a big win and then flame out.

But, what we don’t know, and what this match can reveal, or begin to, is whether he is one of those uber talented players who win their first slam semi-final early on in their careers and finish runner up like a Moya or Tsonga, or if he is one of those who win their first semi and final and become no.1 and win more slams like a Safin or a Kuerten.

Then there’s that even rarer breed, a Federer, Sampras or Nadal, who win their first semi final and then final and go on to become all time greats.

That’s a journey we’re excited to go on with Tsitsipas- seeing where exactly he is going to land on the spectrum of champs, and if he can clear the next hurdle, Nadal. Just as we’ve enjoyed going along with Nadal for his ride, all the way to the far side of legend. A ride that’s still going, and which, if Nadal keeps it up, may end up being the furthest journey of all.

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Novak Djokovic Vs Kei Nishikori Australian Open Quarter Final Preview

Djokovic
Photo courtesy of Wikimedia commons.

Australian Open men’s quarter-final, Novak Djokovic Vs Kei Nishikori

Novak Djokovic has looked anything but the 2019 men’s singles champion in waiting on his way to his quarter final meeting with Kei Nishikori.

But, here he is again, in his 10th Australian Open quarter final, beating Kreuger, Tsonga, Shapovalov and Medvedev to get there.

This is his first appearance in the last eight since 2016. In that match he faced Kei Nishikori and defeated him in straight sets, the Japanese in form and promising a real contest. Djokovic saw that coming and played accordingly, reducing Nishikori to an error strewn mess.

In their 17 meetings, Djokovic has won 15 of them, 9 of them in straights.

Nishikori’s two wins have been pretty big ones, though. The Japanese caught the Serbian at the tail end of his all time great 2011 season and defeated him in Basel in three sets and beat him in the US Open quarters ’14 when the Serbian had just started finding his Grand slam form again, coming off a Wimbledon win.

Nishikori at his hard court heights is quite the sight, and too much to take for the majority of the tour. The aggression, the deep and penetrating ground strokes, the changes of direction and shot-making, those strengths and his returning compensating for his service.

That weak service game and his tendency to over hit in big matches against more wily base-liners with the patients of saints hellbent like devils on driving you out of your mind have got in the way of the Japanese winning a Grand slam. If two glaring flaws were not enough, there’s also his fragile body and his tendency to get involved in long grueling matches which often leave him spent by the time he gets to a match in which he needs all the energy he can muster.

And this match versus Djokovic will be one of those matches.

Those weaknesses will once again hurt him versus Novak Djokovic this Australian Open. After all, who better to undo them than Novak Djokovic? That’s what Djokovic does, and this time he won’t have to think too hard about which weakness to pick on.

Give Djokovic a man coming off the back of a five hour five minute match so emotional it reduced Nishikori’s opponent, the usually placid Pablo Carreno Busta, to an outburst of pure fury and left his own coach Michael Chang, one of the tour’s greatest ever competitors, in tears of appreciation, and Djokovic will give that man plenty of running to do, making him play one long drawn out game after the other until the leg and mind can do no more.

Once his opponent is mentally and physically done, Novak will do as he pleases: keep rallying and get some good rhythm going; be aggressive and finish the points early to leave him fresh for the semis; experiment with some shot-making and woo the crowd. Whatever he likes because Djokovic doesn’t just have plan B or C; he’s got plan A-Z.

He won’t peak, though, unless of course that’s what Nishiori ends up doing.

That’s for the final and the in-form Nadal.

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Rafa Nadal Vs Frances Tiafoe Australian Open Quarter Final Preview

Nadal Australian Open
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Rafa Nadal had not played since the US Open entering this year’s Australian Open. The Spaniard was busy healing knee a injury, a task that has kept him occupied for long stretches of his career.

Usually, though, when Nadal is not recovering from one injury or another, he’s busy competing for slams, and he’s made quick work of that at this year’s Australian Open. James Duckworth, Matthew Ebden, Alex di Minaur and Tomas Berdych have all been dismissed, all in straights, and going into the business end of the slam Nadal has won the least (1 title in ’09), Nadal is as fresh as it gets, a fact his knees will be grateful for; his upcoming opponent not so.

Frances Tiafoe is up next. The American turned 21 on Sunday, but that milestone was a little overshadowed by a professional one, the American’s first fourth round Grand slam win earning his first quarter-final. The American upset Kevin Anderson and Grigor Dimitrov to get there.

Tiafoe won’t be keen to get on the Nadal unmerry go round of victims, but it’s hard, considering his inexperience, to not see him taking a seat on that less than, for Nadal’s recent rivals, ride.

For even if Tiafoe comes out playing great shot-making aggressive tennis, he still has two problems- breaking the Nadal serve and winning the mental battle should the match come down to the wire.

Nadal’s new service is working out well- he has faced 13 break points all tournament, and been broken twice, in his opening match versus Duckworth. That serve, shortened to spare his ankle, will give him some confidence he won’t aggravate his injury, and that lack of fear makes him even more dangerous.

As for the mental battle, this is Nadal in a slam quarter-final, his 37th, and so far he’s 29/36. With fresh legs, in-form, and facing a slam quarter final beau, Nadal is going to be feeling very confident if sets get tight, and will give Tiafoe his first real insight into what pressure at the top of men’s tennis feels like.

Tiafoe won’t be blamed if he can’t stand up to it. His performances so far suggest he’ll give it his best shot, and if he can do so on the big points, we could be in for an upset. And if he can’t, well there will be plenty more shots at the semis for Tiafoe in the future. For Nadal, that’s not quite the case, and with the draw opening up the way it has, it’s hard to see him letting this one pass.

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Australian Open Men’s preview Top Half Fourth Round

Australian Open
Photo courtesy of Carine06 at Flickr

Australian Open top half fourth round preview

Novak Djokovic (1) Vs Daniil Medvedev (15)

Medvedev believes he has a chance versus Djokovic, a confidence he’s taken on the back of his fellow #NextGenATP player’s victories over the world no.1 (Tsitsipas Canada; Khachanov Paris-Bercy; A.Zverev WTF) and another force, one not even Novak Djokovic can fight- the ageing process.

While time may have meant Djokovic is not the player he once was, time has been a great help to the 22 year old Medvedev, giving the Russian the experience he needs to compete with the likes of Djokovic.

It’s time also that Medvedev feels will help him beat Djokovic, the Serbian, according to the Russian, giving you more time to hit the ball than other top players, a factor that would work in Medvedev’s favor, increasing his chances of hitting the powerful flat strokes that could potentially overwhelm the Serb.

Against the 31 year old Djokovic, Medvedev will need all the belief he can dig deep for. Djokovic may have looked less than impressive vs Shapovalov, but not much should be read into that performance other than it being another example of Djokovic’s advanced match management. Djokovic, like Murray, susses out the level of his opponent and adjusts his own accordingly, denying them the high level of tennis that can pick a struggling opponent’s level up, especially a sparky shot-maker like Shapavolov.

If Medvedev comes out playing as well as he has been of late, Djokovic will raise his own level a notch or two, be aggressive and consistent himself and when the lull comes, he’ll make sure it lasts.

Pablo Carreno Busta (23) Vs Kei Nishikori (8)

Carreno Busta is about as solid as a tennis player gets and if Nishikori is even a little bit compromised physically, and he is on a 9 match winning run, Busta has the game to take advantage.

If Nishikori’s body does hold up, Busta will be, in the Japanese’s words “tough” anyway, and the Brisbane champ expects extended rallies versus the 23rd seed playing in his second consecutive Australian Open fourth round, the furthest he has reached at that event.

This is the first match between the two and Nishikori, a three time Melbourne quarter-finalist, is the favorite.

Busta does have all the bases covered- he can serve well, move well, play from the back, build points and finish them at the net- but he doesn’t have any one shot which can really hurt the Japanese while Nishikori is the more aggressive and the more explosive of the two and if the rallies do get extended, Nishikori will look to win them with some of his shot-making skills and some inspired changes of direction.

Alexander Zverev (4) Vs Milos Raonic (16)

Sascha Zverev has made another slam fourth round, his third in all. In his first one, at Wimbledon in 2017, a five setter in which Zverev led by two sets to one, he was beaten by the Canadian, against whom he is 1-1, the German’s win a straight setter in Rome ’17.

At Wimbledon ’17, Raonic was on his way up, but now it’s Zverev in the ascendancy while Raonic tries to climb back to where he belongs, at the business end of medium fast slams.

This match will tell us a lot about how far Zverev really has come since hiring Lendl, if he can back up his fine play on the regular tour and meet his seeded position of four.

Zverev cannot be accused of not putting the work in. Like Raonic did to make the strides in his game, developing a solid less penetrable back court game, Zverev has worked on his weaknesses- his net play and mental toughness.

But those weaknesses are where Raonic is strong and what make the Canadian such a force on hard courts when in form, which he is.

Zverev is about to be asked some serious questions about just how mature and confident in moving forward he really is, and nothing but acing the test versus Raonic will do.

Borna Coric (11) Vs Lucas Pouille (28)

Coric is the sleeper in his quarter of the draw. Overlooked because of Fucsovic’s presence in his section, the Croatian has reached his second consecutive Grand slam fourth round under the radar, defeating Fucsovics in the process, in the second round, and in straights.

Pouille’s best results have come on faster courts and the former top tenner has reached his first slam fourth round since the US Open ’17, each match he has played to get there getting harder and harder, and this will be his toughest encounter yet.

Coric is the favorite in this match up, leading Pouille 2-0, both wins on hard (indoor and outdoor). With conditions suiting both men’s games in different ways- Pouille’s explosive shot-making and flat strokes; Coric’s movement, depth of shot and point construction-this match could go either way, but if it comes down to mental toughness, there’s no contest and it will be a first quarter-final at a slam for Coric.

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Australian Open Bottom Half 4th round Preview

Australian Open Men Final
Photo courtesy of www.beritagol88.com

Australian Open fourth round, Bottom half, preview,

Roger Federer (3) Vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (14)

Tennis fans and pundits are slow to annoint Stefanos Tsitsipas as Baby Fed after the name seemingly cursed Grigor Dimitrov and Richard Gasquet.

Federer has rarely been given any sleepless nights by his tennis heirs, but Tsitsipas is catching Federer at a better time than his elder brothers did.

Federer is a little more prone to having random bad days now and such days were really piling up after Indian Wells last season.

The Swiss has been having some fine days this Australian Open, though, making the last sixteen without dropping a set.

It’s still not quite safe to anoint him the favorite yet- Denis Istomin, Dan Evans and Taylor Fritz are all good match ups for the 6 time champ and we won’t really know if he is in slam winning form until he comes up against someone who can out-power him or test him at the back of the court.

Tsitsipas is a good match up for Federer, too, and if Federer is in tune, this match should be straightforward.

The two will trade sharp service game filled with shot-making and flair, so even if routine, this match won’t be short on entertainment.

This match does have some potential, however, to be anything but a cruise for Federer into the last eight.

Tsitsipas will make the 3rd seed work for his win, good match up or not, and will give 110% until the very end.

The Greek also has the potential to ask deeper questions about Federer’s overall form than the Swiss’ previous opponents with Tsitsipas capable of exploiting Federer’s at times vulnerable backcourt game, the Greek’s own baseline skills as explosive as Federer’s in his early days.

The 14th seed is primed for a fight, too- he defeated the in form 19th seed Nicolas Basilashvili in four brutal sets in round 3.

He’s also had a taste of what it’s like to play his idol when they met in the Hopman cup so he won’t be too unnerved by their first professional meeting.

This match is the first night match on Rod Laver Arena on Sunday night. Prime time slot for the prime cut of the bottom half last sixteen contests.

Cilic (6) Vs Bautista Agut (22)

Bautista is in as good form as anyone in the draw having won the title in Doha and making his way to the Australian Open fourth round for the fourth time in his career.

The 22nd seed has been involved in some almighty contests, too, having won the first two sets in both his first and second round matches, versus Andy Murray and John Millman, before dropping sets three and four and winning in five.

Round three saw Bautista get something of a rest after he beat Karen Khachanov in straights so he should still have plenty of running left in his legs.

Cilic will be ready for a fight himself after beating Fernando Verdasco in the third round, coming from two sets to love down and match point down in the fourth set tiebreaker.

Bautista Agut has made ten slam fourth rounds now and is looking to break through and make the last eight of a slam for the first time.

Although Bautista Agur trails 1-4 in the head to head, he has beaten Cilic at the Australian Open before, in the 3r in ’16, and if he can capitalize on Cilic’s lapses in a match and not let his own level drop, he could put in his personal best slam performance.

Cilic, one of the top players most prone to Grand Slam upsets, will be on his game in this one, only too aware of the dangers ahead. If he does make it through what is sure to be a tough match, it will bode well for the rest of his tournament for once Cilic clears a couple of tough hurdles in a slam, he becomes the man to to beat for the title.

Frances Tiafoe Vs Grigor Dimtrov (20)

Tiafoe is having his breakthrough slam; Dimitrov is putting his career back together again.

This match puts two talented shot-makers up against one another with a slam quarter-final to play for- Tiafoe’s first; Dimitrov’s first since he made the quarters last year in Melbourne, his best slam.

Their one match was in Canada last season which Dimitrov won on a third set tiebreaker, which bodes well for this last sixteen match up.

Dimitrov has Agassi in his corner, who knows a thing or too about young American shotmakers, and he’ll be offering some sound advice to Dimitrov how to take this match on, and the Bulgarian has shown us before how he is not afraid to go to plan B to get the win, and it’s that experience and dynamic style and approach which could make the difference here.

Tomas Berdych Vs Rafa Nadal (2)

With Berdych reinvigorated and Nadal going untested this slam, the outcome of this match really is hard to predict.

Berdych has beaten Nadal before in Melbourne, in the ’15 quarters, but that was a rare win, the Czech 4-19 in that head to head.

Sped up conditions in Melbourne play into Berdych’s hands, the Czech’s game naturally suited to faster courts and balls. Nadal, nevertheless, is still the more accomplished on hard courts, able to tinker his serve and game style to complement his already aggressive baseline game.

Toss a coin for this one and have a great time waiting to see which side it lands.

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Australian Open Mens 3r Preview Daniil Medvedev Vs David Goffin

Photo courtesy of wikipedia commons

Australian Open 3rd round, Daniil Medvedev (15) Vs David Goffin (21), Day 6, Melbourne arena, not before 12:30 pm.

In 2018, Daniil Medvedev (15) won the most matches on hard courts on the tour (won 37, lost 14), only his third season playing in ATP main draws, picking up titles in Sydney, Winston-Salom and Tokyo, the latter title won as a qualifier.

That run of form has flown over in the new year with Medvedev reaching the Brisbane final (lost to Nishikori) and reaching the third round in Melbourne.

His opponent David Goffin (21) is pretty skilled on hard courts, too. He’s been to the quarters in Melbourne (’17), made the semis in Cincy, Miami and Indian Wells, and 3 of his 4 career titles have come on hard (Moselle, Shenzen, Tokyo).

Like Medvedev has now, Goffin also had a buzz about him at various stages of his career, that buzz first generating when he reached the Roland Garros last 16 in ’12 as a qualifier and reaching its loudest point when he beat Nadal and Federer on his way to the ATP Finals ’17 (lost to Dimitrov).

Goffin has never really been able to take advantage of his momentum, being hit by unfortunate accidents (falling on the tarpaulin at the back of the court at Roland Garros ’17, hitting his eye with his racket at Rotterdam ’18) and injuries ( a right elbow injury forcing him to end his ’18 season after Shenzen).

Goffin is part of the cursed Nishikori-Dimitrov- Raonic generation who have not, for a host of reasons, broken through and replaced the generation above them in terms of grand slam wins and top rankings.

A decade ago, most people would have thought that the current top 3, Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer, aged 31, 32 and 37 respectively, would have been on their way out of the game, if not already retired, and Nishikori and co would have been at the top of the game.

That Nishikori generation is now in danger of being rammed off the side of the road by the one below of Medvedev, Zverev, Khachanov, Coric, Chung and Shapovalov, one of the deepest generations we’ve had in a while and all developing at steep, and perhaps alarming, for the likes of Goffin and Thiem, another member of an under-achieving generation, rates.

If Medvedev wins this Goffin match and makes the fourth round, that would be the 22 year old’s furthest stage in a slam reached and a further step in his generation’s progress above their elders and towards the top of the game.

Medvedev is a likely winner, too. In this match-up, Medvedev has the bigger serve, the flatter shots, and the more aggressive game which means his service games will be on his terms. He’ll have to serve incredibly well against Goffin, too- the Belgian was 2nd for return stats on the ATP tour in 2018.

That Goffin return gives him a good chance in this match, especially if he can put pressure on Medvedev, which his greater experience should allow him to do. Goffin also has just the game to exploit Medvedev’s height- the Belgian likes moving his opponent’s side to side and then either hitting the backhand down the line for a winner or moving forward to take the ball out the air.

Both these player’s hard court prowess and the fact their strengths negate each other’s weaknesses makes this match my pick of the day for this top half last 32 Australian Open meeting.

There’s a lot at stake- for Medvedev, his first round of 16 at a slam and keeping that momentum going; for Goffin getting his career back on track and some confidence.

There’s also something else to motivate these two, as if they needed it- a potential last 16 match versus Novak Djokovic where they could really test how far they have to go to move ahead of that generation and make the top of the game their own. In recent months, that shift, with Khachanov’s win over Djokovic in Paris and Zverev’s in London, has looked, for Medvedev’s generation, like it could get seismic, while for Goffin’s, it’s been dead in the water for some time. Just how close to an earthquake we are or whether there is life beneath the surface are two questions many of us would like answered, and finding out whether it will be Medvedev or Goffin asking the question will be very intriguing indeed.

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