Roland Garros 2019 Men’s Draw Breakdown
Two days. Two whole days until Roland Garros. With plenty of players breaking through this season and a whole host of different champions on the tour, and some old favorites, players and narratives, at the fore, this Roland Garros has the potential to be one of the most historically significant and downright entertaining for a while.
Heading the draw is world No.1 Novak Djokovic who is 1 slam away from holding all four slams at once for the second time in his career. Yes, Roger and Rafa fans, you read that right.
Djokovic has a fairly tricky opener as openers go for top seeds- he’s drawn the improving youngster Hubert Hurkacz.
Gilles Simon in round 3 would give Djokovic something to think about and Borna Coric in round 4 won’t let him get away with putting in one of his customary early round stinkers.
Zverev or Lajovic in the quarters would also be a challenge, but neither are known quantities at slams and the man currently holding three of them is likely to go through a little ruffled but with his hair neatly back in its place for the semis.
Winner of this quarter: Novak Djokovic
Dominic Thiem is the top ranked player in this section. He did not have as great a Clay season as we expected, but his unexpected Indian Wells triumph balances that out.
The tournament will really start for Thiem in the fourth round where Fernando Verdasco could be lying in wait to repeat his Rome upset of the Austrian.
In the quarters, Thiem could face Juan Martin del Potro who contested that match of the season versus Djokovic in Rome and who comes to life at slams, except when they are in Melbourne that is.
Winner of this quarter: Thiem. He’s really come into his own since reaching the Roland Garros final last season. That US Open quarter final loss to Nadal and the Indian Wells win show that far from being just a clay courter, he is a great player whose baseline power and sheer will could take him back into the Paris semis to give himself another shot at playing for the title.
Third seed Roger Federer leads this section of the draw which by default makes this the most open section of the draw.
Federer performed well in Madrid and Rome, reaching two quarters, but his withdrawal from his Rome quarter final against Stefanos Tsitsipas suggests that if he has a few tricky matches to get going the going might come to a halt before he reaches his seeded position in the semis.
Lorenzo Sonego in round 1, Malek Jaziri in round 2, and possibly Hungarian Open champion Matteo Berrettini in round 3 will be challenging for the Swiss, though his versatility and clay court experience- he is a former champion in Paris no less- should see him through.
Last year’s surprise semi-finalist Marco Cecchinato or the recent Rome last four competitor Diego Schwartzman in round 4 may be a little too much for the Swiss and leave him a little spent, if he survives, for a Tsitsipas Slam rematch in the last eight.
Winner of this quarter: Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Tsitsipas is a likely contender for an upset- a young talented and high-achieving player for his age with a lot of hype behind him- but he’s got a decent draw ( a raw Tiafoe in round 3 and Wawrinka and Cilic in round 4 are as good as it gets to be honest) and the hype is justified- he really is that good.
Second seed Nadal may be at the bottom of the draw but he’s top of the pile at Roland Garros as the 11 time champion.
Having the likes of David Goffin, Nikoloz Basilashvili and Guido Pella in his section should have fans worrying for him, but his Rome run put any concerns about his form to rest. As Nadal himself said, what happened in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid happened. In Paris, everytime Nadal steps on the court is a new day even if it seems like a groundhog one for those wishing for a little more unpredictability in their professional tennis.
Winner of this quarter: Nadal. He’s going to be vulnerable early on, and there’ll be some tense moments, but he’s Nadal and this is Roland Garros and history tells us only a Soderling like performance, a huge drop in form, or an injury end his Roland Garros campaigns before the semis.
Top half: Djokovic defeats Thiem.
Bottom half: Nadal defeats Tsitsipas.
Unfortunately for Thiem and Tsitsipas, though they will give their all in the semis, they may have overplayed by then and it may not be enough.
Djokovic and Nadal have also played plenty of tennis and are older so this rule might seem like it works for them, too, but it’s the mental toll of overplaying that will likely do for the younger pair who still lack the big match experience that has made Nadal and Djokovic the mentally tough players they have become even when playing their seventh match of a slam and going into the fourth set.
Djokovic defeats Nadal.
It is hard to pick between these two, but it is what is on the line here that could swing it the way of Djokovic.
Holding all four slams at once twice in your career- to be a match away from that feat, to be the Madrid champion and Rome runner up, to be the best player in five setters on the tour right now, and to have the edge those Wimbledon and Australian Open wins give you over your potential Roland Garros final opponent, all those factors combined are overwhelmingly in favor of Djokovic.
Between these two, though, history often goes out the window when they are both in form, as we saw just last year in the Wimbledon semis, and in many ways, considering how they’ll be continuing their recent good form if they make the final, then the championship match will be a fresh start.
Still, in the difficult business of predicting winners before the tournament starts, and in a rivalry so balanced but with so many twists and turns, you have to go with the factor that is the biggest clincher in tennis- what’s between the ears, and right now no one has a tennis brain as tuned in to Grand Slam tennis than Novak Djokovic.
Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this preview please share it. Also, come back during Roland Garros- I’ll be trying to post everyday and would love to share the RG experience with you. Please feel free to comment and share your thoughts, too.
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